Domicile Risk Outlook 2027
Risk ratings for 33 global wealth hubs across nine domains, from governance and armed conflict to public safety and natural hazard, with a 12-month outlook for every region.
Contents
This is the first edition. Published 31 October 2026. Reflects information available on 30 October 2026.
33
wealth hubs rated
8
score LOW
24
score MODERATE
1
score ELEVATED: none HIGH or SEVERE
Executive summary
Key findings
- 01
Only the hub under attack scores ELEVATED.
Riyadh (5.4) is the only ELEVATED hub: Houthi forces struck its main airport four times between 7 and 11 October. Dubai and Abu Dhabi (3.3) and Doha (3.7) score MODERATE despite the regional war. Their Armed conflict scores are ELEVATED and Calendar risk HIGH, but their Governance, Public safety and Security threats foundations are among the strongest in the index, and Abu Dhabi and Doha record its highest street-safety readings.
Confidence: High
- 02
The next six months decide the Gulf.
Between February and May the UAE faced more than 550 ballistic missiles and 2,265 drones, most of them intercepted. The last strike on UAE soil was on 17 May, and since July the war has been fought mainly at sea. US officials have told Gulf allies to prepare for possible strikes on Iran after the 3 November midterms. We judge a continued standoff likely to April 2027, and renewed strikes on Gulf territory a realistic possibility. Renewed strikes would take Dubai to 5.0, ELEVATED; a settlement that reopens the strait would take it to 2.6, LOW.
Confidence: Moderate
- 03
The leading financial centres are not the lowest-risk.
Of the world's four leading financial centres, New York, London, Hong Kong and Singapore, only Singapore scores LOW (1.5). New York (4.3), London (3.8) and Hong Kong (3.5) score MODERATE. New York's and London's risk sits mainly in street crime and terrorism exposure; Hong Kong's in governance and information control.
Confidence: High
- 04
Paris now carries more risk than any hub except Riyadh.
Student-led protests turned to rioting and looting on 17 October, with about 2,700 arrests nationwide, and 1,000 more were arrested on 24 October. That places Paris's Public safety score in the HIGH band. France has held its highest Vigipirate level all year and votes for a president in April and May 2027. Elsewhere in Europe, the UK raised its threat level to SEVERE in April and Germany attributed an attempted drone attack at Leipzig-Halle airport to Russian state entities.
Confidence: Moderate
- 05
Asia-Pacific's tail risk is Taiwan, not the street.
China's December 2025 exercise rehearsed a blockade of Taiwan's ports. A blockade would reach Shanghai, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Singapore through trade and markets; we judge it unlikely in the next 12 months.
Confidence: Low
- 06
Information risk is the quiet differentiator.
Singapore, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Doha and Riyadh pair low street-crime readings with ELEVATED to HIGH Information control scores, which matter to a digitally active younger generation.
Confidence: High
The ranking
33 hubs, lowest risk first
Composite risk score on a 1–10 scale; lower is lower risk. Ties are listed alphabetically. Trend shows the expected direction over the next 12 months.
| Rank | Hub | Region | Score | Band | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gstaad | Europe | 1.5 | LOW | → Stable |
| 2 | Monaco | Europe | 1.5 | LOW | → Stable |
| 3 | Singapore | Asia-Pacific | 1.5 | LOW | → Stable |
| 4 | St. Moritz | Europe | 1.5 | LOW | → Stable |
| 5 | Geneva | Europe | 1.7 | LOW | → Stable |
| 6 | Tokyo | Asia-Pacific | 2.6 | LOW | → Stable |
| 7 | Amsterdam | Europe | 2.7 | LOW | → Stable |
| 8 | Stockholm | Europe | 2.7 | LOW | → Stable |
| 9 | Abu Dhabi | Middle East | 3.3 | MODERATE | ↑ Deteriorating |
| 10 | Berlin | Europe | 3.3 | MODERATE | ↑ Deteriorating |
| 11 | Dubai | Middle East | 3.3 | MODERATE | ↑ Deteriorating |
| 12 | Madrid | Europe | 3.3 | MODERATE | ↑ Deteriorating |
| 13 | Aspen | Americas | 3.4 | MODERATE | → Stable |
| 14 | Sydney | Asia-Pacific | 3.4 | MODERATE | ↑ Deteriorating |
| 15 | The Hamptons | Americas | 3.4 | MODERATE | → Stable |
| 16 | Vail | Americas | 3.4 | MODERATE | → Stable |
| 17 | Hong Kong | Asia-Pacific | 3.5 | MODERATE | → Stable |
| 18 | Rome | Europe | 3.6 | MODERATE | → Stable |
| 19 | Doha | Middle East | 3.7 | MODERATE | ↑ Deteriorating |
| 20 | Barcelona | Europe | 3.8 | MODERATE | ↑ Deteriorating |
| 21 | London | Europe | 3.8 | MODERATE | ↑ Deteriorating |
| 22 | Milan | Europe | 3.8 | MODERATE | → Stable |
| 23 | Palm Beach | Americas | 3.8 | MODERATE | → Stable |
| 24 | Kuala Lumpur | Asia-Pacific | 3.9 | MODERATE | → Stable |
| 25 | Côte d'Azur | Europe | 4.1 | MODERATE | ↑ Deteriorating |
| 26 | Shanghai | Asia-Pacific | 4.1 | MODERATE | → Stable |
| 27 | Miami | Americas | 4.3 | MODERATE | → Stable |
| 28 | New York | Americas | 4.3 | MODERATE | ↑ Deteriorating |
| 29 | Los Angeles | Americas | 4.4 | MODERATE | → Stable |
| 30 | San Francisco | Americas | 4.4 | MODERATE | → Stable |
| 31 | Bangkok | Asia-Pacific | 4.5 | MODERATE | ↑ Deteriorating |
| 32 | Paris | Europe | 4.7 | MODERATE | ↑ Deteriorating |
| 33 | Riyadh | Middle East | 5.4 | ELEVATED | ↑ Deteriorating |
Domain-by-domain results, regional analysis, scenarios and sources are in the full report.
About the method
How the ratings are built
Each hub is scored from 1 to 10 on nine domains. Every domain combines published international data, from sources such as the World Bank, the Institute for Economics & Peace, Reporters Without Borders and S&P Global, with dated event evidence reviewed by GIG analysts against written criteria.
Governance
Institutions, rule of law, corruption
Economy
Sovereign strength, growth
Public safety
Street crime, disorder
Security threats
Terrorism, violent crime, state attack
Armed conflict
War and hostile state activity
Information control
Press freedom, online speech
Infrastructure
Aviation, power, telecoms
Natural hazard
Disaster and climate exposure
Calendar risk
Known risk windows ahead
- LOW1.0–2.9
- MODERATE3.0–4.9
- ELEVATED5.0–6.9
- HIGH7.0–8.9
- SEVERE9.0–10.0
